Economy

‘Only a query of when’: Citadel’s Ken Griffin predicts US recession

Billionaire investor Ken Griffin has warned there might be a recession within the US and stated the Federal Reserve must do extra to convey down inflation, days after the central financial institution elevated its benchmark fee by 0.75 share factors for the third time in a row.

“Everyone likes to forecast recessions and there might be one,” he stated at CNBC’s Delivering Alpha convention in New York on Wednesday. “It’s only a query of when, and albeit, how laborious. A recession may occur as quickly as subsequent 12 months.”

The founding father of hedge fund Citadel and market maker Citadel Securities stated growing rates of interest was an “awkward instrument” to chill the financial system however acknowledged the Fed is proscribed in what it will possibly do to curb inflation.

Griffin joins a rising refrain of voices predicting ache for the US financial system, together with Fed chair Jay Powell who final week stated there was not a “painless manner” to convey inflation beneath management.

Regardless of the gloomy outlook, Griffin stated the Fed wanted to stay with its marketing campaign to tighten financial coverage. “We should always proceed on the trail that we’re on to ensure that we re-anchor inflation expectations,” he stated, so individuals don’t begin to deal with inflation of 5 or 6 per cent because the norm.

Earlier within the day, Stanley Druckenmiller, a veteran of the hedge fund trade, adopted a fair gloomier stance. “We’re in serious trouble,” he stated, including that he can be “shocked” if the US doesn’t tip right into a recession subsequent 12 months.

Griffin drew a distinction between the US and Europe, which he believes may already be in a recession due to excessive fuel costs.

He stated former president Donald Trump had tried to wean the continent off of its dependency on Russian oil.

“Europe was prepared to belief Russia as its elementary supplier of power,” Griffin stated. “In actual fact when it got here to Nord Stream the entire level that president Trump had about ‘no to Nord Stream’ was making an attempt to scale back European dependency upon the Russians for power. And guess what? [He] was proper.”

Griffin’s hedge fund has been among the many greatest performing within the trade this 12 months, with the flagship multi-strategy Wellington fund up greater than 28 per cent to date in 2022, in response to a supply conversant in the agency.

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